CIL S3 Championship Analysis: I've Had My Share of Sand Kicked In My Face

By now, you're probably aware that Season 3 of the CIL has ended and the Kinglers have finally grasped the title :)

I was surprised with the amount of very positive feedback on Twitter from the teambuilding analysis for other successful league matches and decided that, since the Kinglers are on a budget, this would be our championship parade.

If you missed the replay, it's here: http://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/gen7customgame-601653044

Before it even begins, I want to remind everyone that neither Blue or I had much time to prep for this game.  My prep began exactly 6 minutes before our match was scheduled to begin (causing us to start a little late but within the 15-minute window the CIL allows) and I'm sure Blue was in a similar situation.  That said, I was very happy with my prep and having played him in week 1, there was a number of things I was able to recall from then that helped me speed things up.

One thing you'll notice from the team build is that every Kingler member currently on my roster that has been with the Kinglers for multiple seasons was on the championship team except for Cletus.  I tried to find ways to fit her in but her bulk was insufficient for the insane amount of power on the Koko Puff roster.  The best set I could think of was a SpDef set, but Beef made so much more sense packing more bulk, more offense, and Thick Fat for Kyurem + Darm.  More on teambuilding first, but if you feel content with the explanation in my video, feel free to skip to the breakdown below it.

Team Analysis
Big Mamapotomus (Hippowdon) (F) @ Leftovers
Ability: Sand Stream
EVs: 252 HP / 160 Def / 96 SpD
Impish Nature
- Stealth Rock
- Earthquake
- Slack Off
- Roar

I wanted to run sand because he only had one good response to Excadrill, being Suicune.  His entire team could be OHKO'd or 2HKO'd by any combination of two attacks so it seemed like the optimal bring. Max HP & 160 Def was enough to take two HJKs from 252+ Atk Mega Lop, two Flare Blitzes from 252 Atk Darm, his strongest physical attackers, as well as 252+ SpAtk Vikavolt's Energy Ball and 252+ SpAtk Grass Knot from Nihilego.  I would need the bulk to set up sand twice so Guacamole could sweep.

Guacamole (Excadrill) (F) @ Life Orb
Ability: Sand Rush
EVs: 96 HP / 252 Atk / 160 Spe
Adamant Nature
- Earthquake
- Iron Head
- Rock Slide
- Swords Dance

Earthquake does 40% min to 252 / 200+ Suicune, meaning if I could hit it with one Thunderbolt (and one other attack if Wacan, which I didn't account for), nothing can stop Excadrill from sweeping.  On the off-chance I needed to muscle through Suicune with Excadrill, I packed SD since I didn't need the other coverage.  If you're wondering why I prepped for that specific Suicune spread, it was the standard in the calc and near max Def which I expected.  I also felt he needed some speed for Chandelure/ M. Scizor/ and Defensive Manaphy, or some SpDef to avoid being set up fodder for offensive Manaphy/ to win a potential CM war.

Poseidon (Manaphy) @ Rocky Helmet
Ability: Hydration
EVs: 248 HP / 252 Def / 8 SpA
Bold Nature
IVs: 0 Atk
- Scald
- Energy Ball
- Ice Beam
- Heart Swap

I had 3.5 defensive pivots in mind for this game, this was the .5 lol.  Poseidon was planned as a sack to Mega Lop or a reliable check to Darm, which is why you see the Rocky Helmet instead of Leftovers.  Lefties would enable it to take two HJKs from 252+ Lop but after realizing I only needed one Rocky Helmet hit to OHKO w/ Excadrill, I opted for the Helmet, which also broke any potential sashes that might halt the late Guacamole sweep.  Heart Swap was just in case Suicune caused problems setting up or Nihilego was getting those juicy beast boosts, PuP/ Agility Lop, etc.

Beef Jones (Snorlax) (M) @ Assault Vest
Ability: Thick Fat
EVs: 240 HP / 224 Atk / 44 Def
Adamant Nature
- Facade
- Crunch
- Pursuit
- Heavy Slam

None of his special attackers can take on Beef and with the Icium Z on his side, Beef was basically a must-bring.  Pursuit was to make sure Sash Nihilego's item was useless if he tried to switch out and save it, Facade was in case I needed to damage Suicune and got burned, Crunch for Dhelmise, and Heavy Slam for Kyurem, Mimikyu, Nihilego, and Shuckle.

Iron Mantis (Scizor) (M) @ Scizorite
Ability: Light Metal
EVs: 248 HP / 4 Def / 168 SpD / 88 Spe
Careful Nature
- Bullet Punch
- U-turn
- Defog
- Roost

I regretted not bringing our Mega last time but Suicune was enough deterrent to scare it off.  Not this time.  Iron Mantis was determined to help lead the team to victory even if it meant not setting up.  I needed Defog to ensure Sticky Webs couldn't slow down Guacamole, and U-Turn because it invited in Darm without it.  The spread was designed to creep Suicune with a little speed investment itself and the SpDef lived Fire Blast from standard Garchomp, and HP Fire from 252+ Nihilego after rocks if he successfully predicted a switch-in.  It also was an additional Ice & Dragon resist from Kyurem as well as one of few Bug Buzz switch-ins on the team.

RNGesus (Thundurus) @ Expert Belt
Ability: Prankster
EVs: 88 HP / 228 SpA / 192 Spe
Timid Nature
IVs: 0 Atk
- Nasty Plot
- Thunderbolt
- Hidden Power [Ice]
- Agility


The sole reason I brought RNGesus was to hit Suicune with one Thunderbolt.  Ideally, also KO it but all I needed was one hit.  This set is actually bad in the given match-up and could have been drastically improved by dropping a set-up move for Knock Off and I'll explain why in the game breakdown.  The speed creeps Nihilego and the SpAtk is to OHKO offensive Garchomp with HP Ice because of Expert Belt.  Although we had Electrium Z, I felt it was detrimental to that important calc so I had to forgo a Z-Crystal.  A Z-Move for Drill would have been ideal actually... but that's not how our system worked this season.


Breakdown

Leading Iron Mantis was kind of risky for me given a potential scarf Darm lead, but I felt comfortable with the ability to either bait out a Flare Blitz to get some nice rocky helmet chip on him with Poseidon, or even better if he went for U-Turn predicting the switch.  Instead he lead Suicune, likely predicting a Big Mama lead and knowing my team's weakness to Water types, but that's exactly why I thought speed on Iron Mantis might be a good idea.  The 17% chip U-Turn damage was important because it revealed a lack of Leftovers but also was important because the Wacan Berry meant even after taking a Tbolt, Suicune could have still checked Guacamole had I not gotten that 17%.  With this extra damage, Suicune was no longer capable of doing so and absolutely nothing was stopping Guacamole from getting at least one KO, and more likely multiple KOs, each time it hit the field, even revenge KOing Suicune immediately even without sand.  Since he got a Scald burn on Thundurus right away, that meant the speed on Iron Mantis effectively guaranteed Guacamole's sweep because a burned U-Turn + the Wacan Tbolt damage would not have put it in range of EQ.

The full para on Suicune then was frustrating for Blue because it meant RNGesus couldn't get KO'd right away and I was able to sack it later vs Darmanitan which made my decision making process a lot easier.  All I really had to do was make safe, conservative plays to chip away at the team and aggressive doubles on his end predicting such play would have forced me to sack but also enabled Guac to get on the field and KO things.  The absolute best play I could have made would have been to Knock Off if I had it and as promised, this is the explanation of that teambuilding mistake.

If he had a clutch berry (he did), obviously I could have removed it and simultaneously negated the Mirror Coat threat completely.  It also would have covered a switch in from Scarf Garchomp who I expected to come in on a Tbolt and try to revenge KO.  The Knock Off would have put it in range of HP Ice the following turn and remove the threat of being outrun by a Scarf set.  AV Dhelmise, his middle ground play would have taken super effective damage and lost its item in the process so if I had the foresight to pack Knock Off in the few minutes of prep,

When he switched in Lopunny on a Heavy Slam from Beef Jones, everything except Garchomp had taken the damage necessary for the game plan and Big Mama could guarantee that damage by being able to take any two hits from Chomp outside of 252+ Banded Outrage, for which I had Scizor to take the second hit and also live a subsequent Fire Blast if he stayed in, only got two turns, and didn't hit himself in confusion.  This mon was such a threat, which was why I was willing to click HP Ice on Suicune (after it took the tbolt).  RNGesus had already done its job and the damage on Chomp would have kind of meant the game was over but he was smart not to risk that.

There was a HJK miss on Poseidon that was also unfortunate, but it was already in range of Guac at that point, as well as Big Mama's EQ.  If he had connected the HJK on Poseidon, after Rocky Helmet, it would have been in range of Iron Mantis's Bullet Punch and he needed two max rolls to 2HKO Poseidon.  I only mention it because, as crazy as it might seem initially, the hax on this turn was inconsequential to the outcome.  It would have changed the rest of the plays, of course, but not the outcome.

Because of the hax, I was never able to get Guacamole in safely, which is in some ways a good thing.  Due to Excadrill's offensive pressure, it did extend the game and potentially open the door for momentum to shift against me if I misplayed, but it also meant that I had a greater degree of control and any hax at that point couldn't prevent me from winning (as we saw when Poseidon was crit by Flare Blitz which kept the Darm alive).

I think Blue played fantastically the entire game except for letting Suicune take the Tbolt.  Initially after being told he went for Mirror Coat, I thought it was a clever tech but the damage meant that literally by the second turn I had almost finished doing what I needed for the Guac sweep.  Suicune needed to stay at least at around half health to check my sand mode or at 56% to ensure it could still check it even after a crit (although if Guac hadn't taken enough LO recoil, he would also need a Scald burn but it would still leave it in a position where it had probably 2 hits left at most).  If I were advising my opponent I would have built differently, perhaps with a hazard stacking offense and Suicune in the back to always check sand.

In this case it came down to having a better team matchup so that I never had to stunt or make any plays; I just had to make safe moves to ensure I could win the game with Guac and leave nothing to chance.  I've been really proud of my teambuilding this season, being able to do that almost every single game whereas in past seasons, my builds have been hasty and my success was predicated heavily on prediction.  While I still enjoy stunting from time to time, I enjoy having a championship in the Kingler office even more :)


MVP
The MVP of the Championship definitely has to go to Big Mama.  Although RNGesus, Poseidon, and Iron Mantis all got KOs, Big Mama led the team with 3 KOs and saved us from the sheer power of the Koko Puffs, so the defensive MVP was also the source of our offense as well :)


Final Thoughts
I know this was a crazy long analysis but I feel that all the information I discussed was pertinent to understanding the outcome as well as why I made the plays I did.  If anyone applies the principles that lead to my decisions, I think it could help others grow into an even higher level of play, which is the entire reason I do posts like this in the first place.

I've said it many times but my hat's off to Blue who played every turn after the second perfectly, and had a phenomenal season outside of that, finishing second in the regular season, getting the first round bye, dominating the semifinal match and playing valiantly in the championship.  He will most certainly be back with a vengeance in season 4 for the RU draft, but for now I'm not even thinking about future seasons, just enjoying the success of the current one :)  Thanks for sticking around and I'll see you on Twitter!