The Matchup
General impressions: improved options vs my baton pass via taunt Tornadus. Roar Donphan seems likely as well. I had this feeling he'd go Weavile to address my genies but I think Ttar would have been better when paired with Victini. Thought Victini might sit the bench this week since I have 5 checks to it. Serp is pretty good against the team but the presence of Torn, Kyurem, & Scoli might deter it. Araquanid is gonna be annoying and force certain builds on me. Florges and Donphan present set up opportunities as can a weakened or slowed Victini. I have several directions I can take the team but I'll always be a little weak to some things.
My Team
Big Mamapotomus (Hippowdon) (F) @ Leftovers
Ability: Sand Stream
EVs: 252 HP / 4 Atk / 156 Def / 96 SpD
Impish Nature
- Earthquake
- Thunder Fang
- Slack Off
- Stealth Rock
Physically defensive with enough bulk to not get 2HKO'd by Weavile's Icicle Crash and Jolly Mega Aerodactyl's Aqua Tail. Rest goes towards Spdef investment ensures avoiding a 2HKO from mixed, physically-based TTar's Ice Beam, & mixed specially-based Life Orb Victini's Glaciate. Big Mama can take on Victini, Tyranitar, Donphan, Mega Aero, and Tornadus lacking Grass Knot as well as help get chip damage on Celesteela and Araquanid if need be.
Frosty (Kyurem-Black) @ Haban Berry
Ability: Teravolt
Shiny: Yes
EVs: 248 HP / 4 Atk / 212 Def / 44 SpA
Lax Nature
- Fusion Bolt
- Ice Beam
- Roost
- Iron Head
b/c of my weakness to Araquanid, I went phys def to capitalize on his great bulk while easing some of Manaphy's considerable defensive burden with the team's weakness to Weavile. this set can perform multiple roles depending on his team composition and provide substantial offensive pressure as well. Banded Adamant Araquanid's liquidation does 29% Max, offensive Donphan's Stone Edge does 43% max, Mega Aero's Stone Edge does 71% max and b/c of the Haban Berry, Goodra's Draco does 65% max. obvi can't take repeated hits from M. Aero and has to roost stall Goodra to take repeated hits, but it *can* do multiple roles. I really wasn't sure what he'd bring so I wanted to cover as many bases as I could without stretching too thin. It also has enough bulk despite the -Spdef nature to always live 252+ Florges' Moonblast and 2HKO back with Iron Head, for which it needs all 4 Atk EVs to do so lol... but seriously. The SpAtk gives it a 56.3% chance to OHKO Donphan from full as well as well as 2HKOing literally anything weak to Ice Beam.
Poseidon (Manaphy) @ Rocky Helmet
Ability: Hydration
EVs: 248 HP / 228 Def / 4 SpA / 28 SpD
Bold Nature
IVs: 0 Atk
- Scald
- Ancient Power
- Ice Beam
- Light Screen
Another physical check for his many physical attackers; this set is also my best Weavile response since I decided to forgo Mega Scizor. I didn't need any other coverage so I went with Light Screen to try and help Beef Jones set up more.
Beef Jones (Snorlax) (M) @ Leftovers
Ability: Thick Fat
EVs: 60 HP / 4 Atk / 252 Def / 192 SpD
Impish Nature
- Curse
- Return
- Thunder Punch
- Rest
This set is perfect for the matchup. Maximum bulk with as little HP as possible in order to reduce the amount of health Celesteela gains from Leech Seed. All of his ways of beating this include and are limited to: Low Kick Weavile/ Ttar, crits, or Leech Seed + crits. If I get to +2, which can be very easy on certain mons like Florges, Donphan, Tornadus, Serperior, Goodra, M. Aero and non-banded Victini. It can also set up on Araquanid, if it's not banded and Rest means I don't have to worry about a rogue Toxic Florges or something. I knew going into this that Beef was most likely the win con, but still believe I had other ways to win and might not need it.
RNGesus (Thundurus) @ Flyinium Z
Ability: Prankster
EVs: 8 HP / 252 Atk / 184 Def / 64 SpD
Adamant Nature
- Fly
- Thunder Punch
- Superpower
- Agility
At +2 Speed, it outpaces his entire team even with scarves. Physical because I wanted to make the most of my Z-Crystal and Supersonic Skystrike nukes everything but PhysDef Donphan and Celesteela, the latter of which is answered by coverage. With screens + memento support, I felt RNGesus could clean late. Brick Break doesn't OHKO Ttar from full and Hammer Arm has a 10% chance to miss, so I went with Superpower. As with Beef, lots of PhysDef with little HP to reduce Leech Seed healing and not get revenge KO'd by Weavile's Ice Shard as easily.
Sia (Chandelure) (F) @ Shuca Berry
Ability: Flash Fire
Shiny: Yes
EVs: 248 HP / 220 Def / 4 SpA / 36 SpD
Bold Nature
IVs: 0 Atk
- Flamethrower
- Shadow Ball
- Energy Ball
- Memento
Originally I had T-Spikes on the team so since I was hazard stacking, it made sense to have a spin blocker. Aside from that role, its spread counters physical or physically oriented Victini variants but struggles against special w/ Shadow Ball unless it comes in on V-Create (for free), in which case, it always lives 1 Shadow Ball after rocks. Memento is because TTar seemed like the perfect switch in/partner to deal with Chandelure and if I knew it wasn't banded, I know I could take 252+ Crunch, get some chip with Energy Ball and/or Memento to give Snorlax another set up opportunity.
The Game
Chase's team surprised me as he had no actual responses to Baton Pass. I made 6 potential teams before deciding on this one and 3 of the 6 featured Baton Pass so theoretically, I could have done exactly the same thing I did last time. Chase either took a bold risk or resigned to BP--I'm not sure which haha--but it paid off since I didn't bring it.
http://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/gen7customgame-593553822
There aren't too many things I would have done differently but they pretty much all revolve around Florges. I didn't really prep for CM Florges (you'll notice both my steel types are missing this match) because I didn't acknowledge it as a threat so I should have given that some more consideration, but there were a couple things I could have done to drastically reduced the impact it had on the game:
1) Stay in with Kyurem for Iron Head damage; Kyurem lives Moonblast from even 252+ Florges as you recall and 2HKOs with Iron Head. Losing Sia that early was not something I wanted.
2) Memento a turn sooner; Florges would have been at -1 SpAtk meaning Beef could have set up and taken almost literally no damage. At that point, it would have been over.
Other than that, I stand by my plays but had I gone Beef when I *should* have, it could have been another 5-0 win. I don't even think the play I made was bad per say, but it was definitely sub-optimal and I point this out because that's the difference making your optimal play can make. Had I not played every turn right after that, I surely would have lost as a result.
Key Moments
1) The crit on Florges. It meant Frosty stayed at full, which was helpful later.
2) Victini's dying flinch on Beef on lucky turn 13. Again, once Beef set up, it was over.
You might watch that battle and think I should add the Ancient Power boosts on Poseidon, but they actually didn't matter. I'll explain but first I'd like to point out that after two seasons with the Kinglers, Poseidon has gotten as many Ancient Power boosts as Scald burns. Yes, one each in TWO seasons. But the boost meant Araquanid couldn't sub up which was good since I misread the calc & overestimated the damage output it had on Araq. However, it is actually almost inconsequential because Poseidon was faster, it would never be able to stay behind the sub meaning it would have been revenge KO'd and the ensuing events would not have changed at all aside from happening sooner.
Thinking Ahead
The whole point of reflecting is deciding what I could have done better and simply it would have been recognizing the opportunity to set up sooner. Florges was exactly the set up fodder I was hoping for in order to make Beef's sweep as easy as possible and how I missed that is beyond me. Before the match I was already planning on setting up on Victini, Goodra, or Aero so maybe it was just a matter of focus.
But for anyone hoping to learn from this, I think the key tactic that you can learn here is understanding your set up opportunities. There's sort of this "old wisdom" that you don't set up turn 1 creating a stigma about setting up early but it really isn't that simple. Look for things that don't do much damage, anticipate their potential options and responses, and if you feel that they have a good counter to your set up, it's probably not time yet. Once your set up mon's checks and counters have been removed or weakened enough that they could reasonably take them on after setting up, it's time to pull the trigger, even if it seems early. I've seen both Emvee and Pokeaim set up Dragon Dances turn 1 with Mega Ttar and sweep their opponent's entire team--there were no good checks or counters to their set, their matchup against anticipated leads was favorable, and M. Ttar, being at full health, was able to set up safely. I will certainly be keeping this lesson in mind as I prepare for the chance at winning the CIL and avenging the blemish on a near-perfect season. Wish me luck!
